In my last post I provided my model’s predictions for the play-in games.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Predicted Winner (%, odds) | Actual Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Bonaventure (11) | UCLA (11) | UCLA (60%, 1.5:1) | St. Bonaventure |
| LIU (16) | Radford (16) | Radford (73%, 2.7:1) | Radford |
| Syracuse (11) | Arizona State (11) | Arizona St. (52%, 1.1:1) | Syracuse |
| North Carolina Central (16) | Texas Southern (16) | Texas Southern (68%, 2.1:1) | Texas Southern |
The model went two for four, missing on Syracuse (a game that the model and Vegas basically considered a toss-up) and St. Bonaventure (another tight game as the model saw it).
With the play-in games behind us, we now turn to the round of 64. In terms of the first round, here are the win probabilities, odds, and implied point spreads for just those games:
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Predicted Winner (%, odds) | Implied Point Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas (1) | Penn (16) | Kansas (94.2%, 16.2:1) | -17 |
| Villanova (1) | Radford (16) | Villanova (98.2%, 54.6:1) | -22.7 |
| Virginia (1) | UMBC (16) | Virginia (99.3%, 141.9:1) | -24.6 |
| Xavier (1) | North Carolina Central (16) | Xavier (99.6%, 249:1) | -25.2 |
| Cincinnati (2) | Georgia St. (15) | Cincinnati (97%, 32.3:1) | -20.7 |
| Duke (2) | Iona (15) | Duke (97.8%, 44.5:1) | -22 |
| North Carolina (2) | Lipscomb (15) | North Carolina (96.1%, 24.6:1) | -19.4 |
| Purdue (2) | Cal St. Fullerton (15) | Purdue (97.1%, 33.5:1) | -20.9 |
| Michigan (3) | Montana (14) | Michigan (87.6%, 7.1:1) | -11.5 |
| Michigan St. (3) | Bucknell (14) | Michigan St. (93%, 13.3:1) | -15.7 |
| Tennessee (3) | Wright St. (14) | Tennessee (94.7%, 17.9:1) | -17.6 |
| Texas Tech (3) | Stephen F. Austin (14) | Texas Tech (94.4%, 16.9:1) | -17.3 |
| Arizona (4) | Buffalo (13) | Arizona (76.9%, 3.3:1) | -7.5 |
| Auburn (4) | College of Charleston (13) | Auburn (93.2%, 13.7:1) | -15.9 |
| Gonzaga (4) | UNC Greensboro (13) | Gonzaga (89.3%, 8.3:1) | -12.6 |
| Wichita St. (4) | Marshall (13) | Wichita St. (87.9%, 7.3:1) | -11.7 |
| Clemson (5) | New Mexico St. (12) | Clemson (77.9%, 3.5:1) | -7.8 |
| Kentucky (5) | Davidson (12) | Kentucky (69.4%, 2.3:1) | -5.8 |
| Ohio St. (5) | South Dakota St. (12) | Ohio St. (83.4%, 5:1) | -9.5 |
| West Virginia (5) | Murray St. (12) | West Virginia (74.6%, 2.9:1) | -7 |
| Florida (6) | St. Bonaventure (11) | Florida (73.1%, 2.7:1) | -6.6 |
| Houston (6) | San Diego St. (11) | Houston (75.1%, 3:1) | -7.1 |
| Miami FL (6) | Loyola Chicago (11) | Loyola Chicago (50.2%, 1:1) | -0 |
| TCU (6) | Syracuse (11) | TCU (68%, 2.1:1) | -5.4 |
| Arkansas (7) | Butler (10) | Butler (56.8%, 1.3:1) | -2.2 |
| Nevada (7) | Texas (10) | Nevada (63.7%, 1.8:1) | -4.3 |
| Rhode Island (7) | Oklahoma (10) | Oklahoma (54.2%, 1.2:1) | -1.4 |
| Texas A&M (7) | Providence (10) | Texas A&M (67.5%, 2.1:1) | -5.3 |
| Creighton (8) | Kansas St. (9) | Creighton (56.7%, 1.3:1) | -2.2 |
| Missouri (8) | Florida St. (9) | Florida St. (52.2%, 1.1:1) | -0.7 |
| Seton Hall (8) | North Carolina St. (9) | Seton Hall (55.7%, 1.3:1) | -1.9 |
| Virginia Tech (8) | Alabama (9) | Virginia Tech (55.4%, 1.2:1) | -1.8 |
Not surprisingly, almost all matchups with a 1-4 seed have the higher seed with a win likelihood of at least 90%. The two exceptions are Michigan-Montana and Arizona-Buffalo.
Arizona is the biggest surprise to me, with the model only giving them 3.3 to 1 odds of beating a 13-seed Buffalo. If you dig in, the adjusted points differential for Arizona this year was 11.3 compared to Buffalo’s 7.2, a difference of 4.1. That’s very close, much closer than any comparable matchup.
Kentucky also appears to be in a tough spot with their 5-12 matchup against Dayton. The model only gives Kentucky a 69.4% chance to move on. FiveThirtyEight is more confident in Kentucky (76%) and instead thinks Clemson is the 5-seed in the biggest trouble (62% likeihood to win versus 78% for my model).
The model is only calling four true upsets in the first round, but it is not highly confident in any of them:
- Loyola over Miami (a 6-11 matchup)
- Butler over Arkansas and Oklahoma over Rhose Island (both 7-10 matchups)
- Florida State over Missouri
Now, the model isn’t highly confident in these upsets. Butler has the best chance, but it’s only 56.8%, close to FiveThirtyEight’s 60% prediction. Loyola-Miami is literally a toss up, with the model giving Loyola a probability of 50.2%. The adjusted differential here has Miami only 1.3 points per game better than Loyola, which is appears to be a big factor driving the prediction. Even at these even odds, my model is far more bullish on Loyola than, say, FiveThirtyEight, which currently gives Loyola only a 40% chance to beat Miami in round one.
For those interested, you can find all of the model’s predictions for every possible matchup here. These are based on all 68 teams that were selected for the tournament this year.
Good luck!